Deflate Gate Engine v1.0 -- brainboot.dev

Select teams and click Run Analysis to generate per-quarter TD probabilities.

Run analysis first

Run analysis and enter sportsbook odds to see edge comparison

Player Props -- Bounce-Back Patterns

High-volume receivers who had a suppressed game tend to bounce back. Select a player and enter their last game stats.

Select Player ?Player Database
Players with documented bounce-back patterns. Each has a specific trigger threshold and historical hit rate. Data from Josh's 2023-2025 tracking.

Next Opponent ?Opponent Context
The team this player faces next. Pass defense ranking affects bounce-back probability. For matchup-specific players (Flowers vs PIT, Chase vs BAL), this must match their trigger opponent.

Last Game Stat ?Suppressed Game Check
Enter the player's stat from their most recent game. For receiving yards players, enter total receiving yards. For longest reception players, enter their longest catch in yards.

Last Opponent

Sportsbook Line ?Prop Line
American odds from your sportsbook for this specific prop bet. Used to calculate edge.

Select a player and enter their last game stats to check for bounce-back signal.

How to Use the Deflate Gate Engine

What This Engine Does

The Deflate Gate Engine predicts the probability that a specific NFL team scores a touchdown in a specific quarter. This is a binary outcome -- either they score a TD or they don't. The engine uses the Rigg Binary Model framework: historical base rates + offensive strength + defensive weakness + game context + quarter-specific patterns + injury impact.

Step-by-Step Workflow

1. Select the target team (the team you're considering betting to score) and their opponent.

2. Set home/away and check if it's a division rivalry game.

3. Enter the Vegas total and spread from your sportsbook. These are the market's best estimate of the game environment.

4. Enter weather data for outdoor stadiums (check weather.com for game-time forecast). Dome games auto-neutralize weather.

5. Set QB status and count key injuries on both sides.

6. Click Run Analysis to generate per-quarter TD probabilities.

7. Enter your sportsbook's odds for each quarter in the sidebar to see edge comparison in the Odds tab.

8. After the game, click LOG WIN or LOG LOSS to track your accuracy.

Reading the Quarter Cards

Each card shows three probabilities:
TD% -- probability the target team scores at least one touchdown in that quarter
FG% -- probability of at least one field goal
Any% -- probability of any scoring (TD or FG)

Edge classification:
STRONG (72%+) -- high conviction, bet with confidence
MOD (55-72%) -- moderate, check odds for edge
WEAK (below 55%) -- pass, probability too low

Quarter Patterns

Q1 (~62% avg): Teams settling in. Run-heavy game plans. Some fast starters (Chiefs, Bills) exceed 75%+.
Q2 (~72% avg): Highest scoring quarter. Offenses warmed up + 2-minute drill opportunity adds extra possession.
Q3 (~55% avg): Lowest scoring. Halftime adjustments, conservative play calling, often run-heavy to start.
Q4 (~68% avg): Urgency for trailing teams + prevent defense gives up big plays. Garbage time inflates TD rates for underdogs.

Key Rules

1. Never bet Q3 TDs unless TD% > 68%. Q3 is the lowest-scoring quarter by far.

2. Backup QB = automatic pass. A backup drops TD probability by ~12 points.

3. Check the Odds tab. A 70% TD probability at -250 odds is a losing bet. Only bet when edge > 2%.

4. Weather matters. Freezing temps + high wind can suppress TD rates by 5-8 points at outdoor stadiums.

Result Logger

Run an analysis, then use LOG WIN / LOG LOSS buttons in the top bar after the game.

Running Accuracy

No results logged yet.

History